Tag: behavioral-finance

Don’t ask me why I know this, but there’s an episode of “Sex and the City” when the women discuss dating people who “look good on paper.” They explain that a “good on paper guy” is someone who offers great credentials, good manners, and financial stability. He seems like a great match – but only on paper, because in the real world the chemistry simply isn’t right.

There are numerous examples of words and phrases entering the lexicon, providing deep meaning for many years, but over time and with frequent use losing significance among the masses. The word or phrase itself didn’t change, but the meaning was diluted by changing circumstances.

I worry that “downside protection” has run through the watering-down process.

I was always terrible at those “guess how many tootsie rolls are in the jar” games as a kid. My complete lack of skill never deterred me from participating though. I mean, what kid was going to pass up the opportunity for a windfall like that?!

If you search deep in the nooks and crannies of your memory, you probably can recall one specific fashion choice you made in your younger days that you now look back on with absolute shame. You may have destroyed the pictures – I know I did, and thank goodness this was before the digital age! – but the memory is still there. Whether it be of a mullet, popped collars, parachutes pants, dramatic shoulder pads, or a rat tail, it’s in there, suppressed and collecting dust.

We made these choices because we thought it made us look cool, all our friends were doing it, or out of rebellion. We probably had friends or family members try to talk us out of it, or at least help us find a new path eventually.

Similarly, now more than ever, investors need financial advisors who can talk them out of the investing equivalent of baggy parachute pants.

Since Blueprint is an asset manager, financial services dogma says that right now I’m supposed to tell you where the S&P will close in 2022, which asset class will be the top performer, and where Treasuries are headed.

Instead, for two good reasons I’m going to highlight some laughable predictions made by market “experts” over the years. Reason 1: We could all use a little levity right about now. Reason 2: More importantly, these predictions reinforce the truly important point that most market predictions are worthless.