Tag: behavioral-finance

Earlier this month, Jason Zweig wrote an insightful article about Target Date Funds (TDF), which in the last year surpassed the one trillion-dollar mark in assets under management. In the piece, he provided some background on these instruments and how they have been perceived in the market. He concluded by describing the current equity exposure across some of the prominent TDF providers.

Vanilla is a fascinating ingredient. It is one of the most popular flavors worldwide and is incredibly common for use in baked goods. The process of creating vanilla flavoring is time-consuming and labor-intensive intensive, which is why in its purest form it is also one of the most expensive spices in the world.

Vanilla’s widespread use and high value alone are not what makes it interesting. Take vanilla and add it to a cake mix and it enhances the flavor, turning an ordinary result into something great. But if you first bake the cake and then drizzle even the highest quality vanilla over it, you have effectively ruined the cake.

(750 words and approximate reading time 3.5 minutes)

In 1931, the New York Times, celebrating its 80th birthday invited eight American innovators to predict what life would be like in 80 years. Among them, Dr. William Ogburn, a sociologist, predicted that "people will become more nervous and mental disorders will rise for a time, but by 2011 mental hygienists will probably have the upper hand.” W.J. Mayo, the founder of the Mayo Clinic, said that by 2011, the average life span, then only 54, would rise to 70 (it was 78). As we have written before, market predictions are generally useless even when correct. Why is there such a fascination with predictions to begin with?