Predicting the Future

Posted by Tommy Mayes on 4/23/20 12:54 PM

Approximate reading time: less than 3 minutes

When something happens that has never happened before, do we assert it was unpredictable? On Monday the front month contract for WTI crude oil went negative in price and traded there, as holders were attempting to get rid of the obligation to take delivery. How much can I pay you to take my oil? Amazing. Times like this challenge everything we think we know about the financial world and beg the question, ‘can anyone really predict the future value of any asset?’  What is the truth? I think the answer is up to the reader, but we believe that no one really can. 

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Topics: Transparency, Systematic Investing

The New 20 Year Stock Chart

Posted by Brandon Langley on 4/9/20 1:04 PM

What does history explain about the future? Part 1

The last 20 years have given us three major market shocks. These resulted from the end of a tech bubble, a financial crisis and now, a global pandemic. During this time, investors have experienced every emotional high and low that can be imagined, yet in general, the approach to investing delivered by the financial services industry has not fundamentally changed. Today’s note establishes the case for why this has to change. Read on…

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Topics: Behavioral Finance, Systematic Investing

Communication, At a Distance

Posted by The Blueprint Team on 4/3/20 11:32 AM

First, we sincerely hope this note finds everyone safe and healthy in your world. Blessings abound for our team and our families, and we are grateful to be here to serve our clients and friends. To paraphrase the line from Cool Hand Luke, we will not be accused of a ‘failure to communicate’!  Every month, on the last trading day when we rebalance our portfolios, we send a note to our clients and partners with an update on changes in the model and the status of price trends based upon our rules and systems.  This month, we want to share it with our full audience, because we believe it is insightful regarding the current environment, and because we are proud of our work.  Please read on.

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Advisors Can Flatten the Emotion Curve

Posted by Brandon Langley on 3/26/20 10:22 AM

What incredible times we are living through right now.  About six weeks ago here in the United States all seemed quiet and strong.  Of course, there are always problems, but by comparison to today, things were positive.  Boy, that seems like a long time ago.

Regardless of how this coronavirus pandemic plays out, the lesson we can already take from this is that…you just never know.  No matter how good things seem and no matter how long the fun ride has lasted, it always comes to an end, and usually when we least expect it.  The movie Cocktail, starring Tom Cruise, brings us Flanagan’s Law, “All things end badly or else they wouldn’t end.”

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Topics: Advisor Practice Management, Systematic Investing

Famous Straw Men: The Scarecrow and the Best 10 Days Rule

Posted by Brandon Langley on 3/19/20 1:52 PM

We are clearly in an unprecedented environment where many are referring to the novel coronavirus as an ‘invader’ of our country.  Elections are being postponed in Ohio, residents are being ordered to stay home in some jurisdictions, and businesses that normally never close are now shut down. From an investment perspective many advisors will refer to conventional wisdom as a way to calm clients. One example is the Best 10 Days Rule, and we believe it is a myth.  Read on….

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Topics: Behavioral Finance

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