Not 2008, not the early 1980s, but 2022 was the worst year for bonds on record, according to an analysis by investment historian Edward McQuarrie.

I happen to share a trainer with a local advisor. I hadn’t seen him since early 2022, so when I saw him recently, I asked him how his clients responded to the minting of a bear market in U.S. equities.

He shared that he was satisfied with the planning and preparation he had done with his clients because it yielded constructive dialogue and (mostly) content clients. However, he did join me in lamenting over the change in how many clients evaluate success during a bear market versus a bull.

We joked about how, when things are going well, the phone doesn’t ring and clients are fine with the occasional update in percentage terms. On the flip side, when markets decline, clients suddenly become very attuned and only want to know how many dollars they have lost. In short, the benchmark to which a client compares performance changes.

Well, here we are again.

It’s that time of year when many asset managers like to make predictions about the year ahead, while Blueprint Investment Partners calls attention to the foolishness of that exercise. As evidence, I give you this January  2022 tweet from Bloomberg media personality Jonathan Ferro, who recaps how 14 leading financial firms foresaw the S&P 500 ending 2022. 

Their guesses lend credence to my assertion that one of the only annual market predictions worth making is this: Following a consistent, disciplined investing process will lead to better outcomes than trusting the predictions of financial “experts.”

"When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail,
they're the first thing I open and read." –Warren Buffett

Few (if any) money managers are better than Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, in our opinion. I mean, can you get a bigger endorsement than Warren’s quote above? If you are not familiar with Howard's work, you can read his memos here.

In 2022, Howard perhaps unintentionally made a case for systematic investing generally, and trend following specifically, that we would be hard-pressed to match. From his July memo titled, “I Beg To Differ”:

“You can’t take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform.”

Remember that episode of “Seinfeld” where Uncle Leo gets Jerry’s father a last-minute appointment with a top notch back doctor? And when Jerry’s father accuses the office of stealing his wallet, Uncle Leo is mortified since he gave a personal recommendation and asked the back specialist for such a big favor.

Although this scenario was from a sitcom, it is not far off from the view of the financial advisory world held by Mike Garrison, a business coach and best-selling author. In his just-released book, “Can I Borrow Your Car?” Mike highlights the importance of knowing and trusting both parties in a referral: who you’re referring and who you’re referring to. If you “loan” a key relationship out by making an introduction, you want absolute confidence the individual will come back to you without dings, dents, or scrapes.